Bakery Bites Q3 - NACS Edition
Bakery Bites
We spent October 7–9 on the NACS Show floor in Las Vegas, and one message kept coming up: foodservice is one of convenience's biggest opportunities, and retailers want low-risk ways to grab it. We brought two award winners and our full bakery lineup to Booth C5617. Here's what we heard, and what it means for your set.
The c-store channel
The channel at a glance
This edition leans on the industry's own scorecard, the NACS State of the Industry data, plus the freshest public reporting going into the show. The headline: the channel keeps growing inside the store, and food is doing the heavy lifting. Mintel projects c-store foodservice will reach $78.1 billion in 2026.
Sources: NACS State of the Industry data, NACS press release, April 15, 2026 (calendar year 2025). PDI Insights Cloud via NACS Magazine, “Small but Steady,” July 2026 (2025 data). Convenience Store News Top 100, May 2026 (Nielsen TDLinx store counts, February 2026). Mintel, Convenience Store Foodservice – US, February 2026.
NACS Show 2026 · Las Vegas Convention Center
What we heard in Las Vegas
Three days, 1,200+ exhibitors, and a lot of conversations about where bakery fits in the store. These are the insights we brought home.
Foodservice, without the risk
Foodservice has grown from 12% of in-store sales two decades ago to more than a quarter today, and NACS called it one of the industry's greatest opportunities. But in his NACS Research presentation, Chris Rapanick told smaller operators to “hit the brakes” on new made-to-order programs unless the opportunity is undeniable, and to watch production and waste closely in the ones they already run.
Thaw-and-sell bakery fits that advice: a fresh bakery offer with no new kitchen, labor, or equipment.
NACS Daily, Oct. 9, 2026. C-Store Dive, “6 highlights from Day 1 of the 2026 NACS Show,” Oct. 7, 2026.
Worth it, not cheapest
In “Food & Beverage Trends Shaping Convenience in 2027,” Suzy Badaracco of Culinary Tides said shoppers are more selective with their spending, but they haven't given up on discovery. They're asking whether a product is worth the money. Her advice to retailers: merchandise the occasion, not the aisle.
For bakery, the occasion is the morning coffee run, and a premium pastry is an easy reward to add to it.
NACS Daily, “Familiar Foods and Desire for Discovery Drive Flavor Trends for 2027,” Oct. 7, 2026.
Bakery was a top scan
Of the most-scanned products in the Preview Room were bakery or pretzel items, out of 300-plus products attendees scanned. Two were self-serve bakery display cases, including the most-scanned product of the show's opening day, and the third was a grab-and-go soft pretzel snack.
Retailers weren't just shopping for bakery items. They were shopping for better ways to sell them.
NACS Daily, “The 2026 NACS Show's Top 10 Most Scanned Cool New Products,” Oct. 8, 2026.
Newstalgia: familiar, with a twist
Badaracco called it “newstalgia”: foods that feel nostalgic but bring something new, with sweet-salty and sweet-tangy pairings still going strong. Mike Gilroy of Mars Snacking said Gen Z especially wants twists on familiar classics. The floor backed them up: Mars previewed an M&M's Peanut Butter Cinnamon Roll flavor and a Twix Frosted Cookie for 2027.
Even candy brands are borrowing bakery flavors. Classic bakery formats with rotating seasonal flavors are right on trend.
C-Store Dive, Oct. 8 and Oct. 12, 2026. NACS Daily, Oct. 7, 2026. National Confectioners Association, Oct. 9, 2026.
Trend watch
Protein was on everything
If one claim owned the show floor, it was protein. It was featured prominently in nearly every third booth, and it had moved well past jerky and bars into chips, popcorn, pretzels, pudding, cookies, gummies, and even a protein syrup for fountain drinks. The grams were printed big on the front of the pack, and a high-protein bar ranked No. 9 among the show's most-scanned new products.
NACS pointed to growing GLP-1 use as one reason to rethink the snack set. Suzy Badaracco saw it more as a value play: shoppers are using snacks as full meals and want them to deliver real fuel. Protein has reached bakery, too: one fully baked soft pretzel on display now carries 10g of plant-based protein per serving. That makes it the trend for bakery to watch heading into 2027.
Protein is fuel; bakery is the reward. “To treat myself” is still the No. 2 reason Americans snack, “low in sugar” is losing ground as a definition of healthy (29%, down from 34%), and more than 70% of financially stretched shoppers say a dessert made with quality ingredients is worth paying more for. Make room for both: protein for the commute, a Coffee House Pound Cake or Monster Muffin for the coffee run. Individually Wrapped portions give shoppers a treat with a built-in limit.
C-Store Dive, “7 top takeaways from this year's NACS Show” and NACS Show product trends, Oct. 12, 2026. NACS Daily, Oct. 7, 8 and 9, 2026. Mondelēz International, 2026 State of Snacking. IFIC 2026 Food & Health Survey. Mintel, Flavors and Ingredients in Desserts and Confectionery – US, Aug 2026. Photos: Prairie City Bakery, NACS Show floor.
Award season
Retailers and shoppers picked the same two
Heading into NACS, two PCB items picked up four honors from the channel's two big new-product programs. Retailer judges chose them in the CStore Decisions Hot New Products Contest, and a consumer panel chose them in the Convenience Store News Best New Products Awards. Both were on display in the Cool New Products Preview Room at the show.
Bulk Pretzel
CSN
CStore Decisions
Fully baked, thaw-heat-serve, and sweet or savory from the same case. Read the story
Cinnamon Crumble Coffee House Pound Cake
CSN
CStore Decisions
Our newest Coffee House flavor, recognized in its first year. Individually Wrapped, 4 oz, made for the coffee run. Read the story
PCB momentum
PCB by the numbers
In Q1 and Q2, scan data showed Monster Muffins and Coffee House Pound Cakes leading PCB's growth. This quarter we tracked our own case shipments, and both lines kept climbing. Our 48ct cookies and bulk donuts joined them.
- Down Home Super-Size Cookie, Chocolate Candy+21%
- Bulk Premium Glazed Yeast Donut, White Iced with Sprinkles+19%
- Bulk Down Home Muffin, Cinnamon Cream Cheese+15%
- Bulk Old Fashioned Donut Hole Tray+5%
- Bulk Sandwich Waffle, Maple, 2.8 oz+23%
- Bulk Jumbo Iced Long John, Creme Filled+14%
- Monster Muffin, Blueberry+12%
- Bulk Premium Bismarck, Jelly Filled+9%
PCB shipment data: percent change in cases shipped, Jul–Sep 2026 vs. Jul–Sep 2025 (year over year) and Apr–Jun 2026 (quarter over quarter). Includes cases invoiced directly and cases pulled through by distributors to stores; excludes shipments to redistribution warehouses, private label, and customer-specific programs. Line figures include all flavors and sizes, including flavors added in the past year. Quarter-over-quarter changes include normal seasonal shifts.
Category check
How sweet goods are moving
Four public signals tell us where things stand: what the big chains are reporting, what prices are doing, what's launching, and who's getting the visits.
Food is separating the winners
Casey's prepared food and dispensed beverage same-store sales rose 4.8% last quarter, mostly on traffic rather than price, and inside same-store sales rose 3.2%. Circle K's U.S. merchandise sales grew 1.7% on “continued momentum in food.” Chains leaning less on food posted flatter results: Murphy USA +1.0%, ARKO −1.7%.
Casey's Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended July 31, 2026); Couche-Tard Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended July 19, 2026); Murphy USA Q2 2026; ARKO Q2 2026. Same-store merchandise sales.
Still an affordable indulgence
Prices for cakes, cupcakes and cookies rose 1.9% over the past year. That's about half the pace of food away from home (+3.5%) and well below sugar and sweets (+5.5%). USDA expects food-away-from-home prices to rise 3.5% for all of 2026. A sweet treat is still one of the cheapest ways to indulge.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, 12 months ending September 2026 (released Oct 14, 2026). USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, September 2026.
Small, steady, and always new
New packaged sweet snack items hit the c-store channel in Q1 2026 alone. The category is under 2% of inside sales, and snack cakes, pastries and desserts make up more than 55% of it, followed by muffins, donuts and cookies.
NACS Magazine, “Small but Steady,” July 2026, citing NIQ (Q1 2026) and the NACS SOI Report of 2025 Data.
Food-forward chains are winning visits
Casey's visits grew 5.1% year over year from January through August, with Sheetz (+3.9%), Wawa (+2.7%) and QuikTrip (+1.9%) also up. Circle K (−1.6%) and 7-Eleven (−2.5%) slipped as high gas prices cut into fuel trips.
Placer.ai, “C-Stores Serve Up Growth Amid Pain at the Pump,” Oct 1, 2026. Jan–Aug 2026 vs. 2025; panel-based visit estimates.
As M&A slows, chains are reinvesting in the stores they have, turning them into food-forward destinations. That puts the bakery case and the grab-and-go set squarely in the remodel plan.
Consumer behavior
What shoppers want now
Treating themselves, every day
U.S. adults snack at least once a day. “To treat myself” is the No. 2 reason Americans snack, and 57% of snackers aged 25 to 34 see snacks as better value than a full meal. Mintel also sees morning snacking growing as a breakfast alternative.
Mondelēz International, 2026 State of Snacking (U.S. findings), June 2026. Mintel, The Consumer Approach to Snacking – US, January 2026.
The coffee run is back
Of yesterday's coffee drinkers had a cup away from home, the highest since January 2020. Overall, 66% of American adults had coffee in the past day. That's a lot of trips that start at the coffee counter.
National Coffee Association, 2026 National Coffee Data Trends Fall Report, Sept 15, 2026 (June 2026 survey).
Worth it beats cheap
Of financially struggling consumers say desserts made with high-quality ingredients are worth paying more for. In c-stores, 53% of food and beverage shoppers say better value would get them buying more, and 47% say higher-quality food would.
Mintel, Flavors and Ingredients in Desserts and Confectionery – US, August 2026. Acosta Group, “C-Store Occasions,” Sept 29, 2026 (n=775).
The push for “less” is easing
Of Americans now say “low in sugar” defines a healthy food, down from 34%, dropping it out of the top three for the first time. “Fresh” is back on top at 40%. Protein interest is still there (48% want more), but indulgence has more room than it did a year ago.
IFIC 2026 Food & Health Survey, July 2026 (n=3,005). Circana via Baking Business, Sept 28, 2026.
Shoppers are still treating themselves; they just want it to feel worth it. Coffee drinkers are heading back out of the house, and c-store shoppers say better value and better quality would win more of their food dollars. A Coffee House Pound Cake or Monster Muffin next to the coffee bar is an easy yes. Put it in the bundle and let the treat sell itself.
Foodservice & the bakery case
The lineup we brought to Vegas
From the bulk bakery case to the grab-and-go set, this is what retailers saw at the booth.
Circana via Baking Business, “Bakery consumer trends point to premium growth opportunities,” Sept 28, 2026 (all foodservice, not c-store only). Datassential, 2026 C-Store Trends, Feb 2026.
Bulk foodserviceBulk Donuts
Yeast and cake donuts, long johns, Bismarcks, and apple fritters, ready for the bakery case.
Bulk foodserviceBulk Muffins
Down Home Muffins in Tuxedo, Cinnamon Cream Cheese, Blueberry, and Banana Nut.
Award winnerBulk Pretzel
One pretzel, sweet or savory, every daypart.
BestsellerOoey Gooey Butter Cakes
Our anchor line, from Original to Sea Salt Caramel.
Award winnerCoffee House Pound Cakes
Four Individually Wrapped flavors, made for the coffee pairing.
BreakfastMonster Muffins
Giant 5.5 oz muffins in Blueberry, Banana Nut, and Chocolate Chip.
Trends to know
Five territories shaping bakery
Mintel's 2026 bakery research maps five territories that will shape what shoppers reach for next. Here's what each one looks like in convenience, and where PCB already fits.
Comfort You Can Crave
Familiar formats with a warm, craveable payoff. Chocolate and caramel lead new sweet baked goods, Americans call snacking “comforting,” and cookies, an $18.9 billion category, are shifting from habit to controlled indulgence.
Mintel, US Bakery: Winning Innovation Territories, 2026; Mintel, Cookies – US, June 2026; Circana via Baking Business, Sept 2026; Mondelēz, 2026.
Bakery, Elevated
Patisserie-level quality at an everyday price. 41% of sweet baked goods launches in the past year were premium-priced, and more than 70% of financially struggling consumers say quality ingredients are worth paying more for. At NACS, the message was the same: shoppers are asking whether a product is worth the money.
Mintel, Winning Innovation Territories, 2026; Circana via Baking Business, Sept 28, 2026; Mintel, Flavors and Ingredients in Desserts, Aug 2026; NACS Daily, Oct 7, 2026.
Bold Flavors, Baked In
Bolder, layered flavors in familiar formats. Hot honey is on 11.3% of U.S. menus, up about 230% in four years, Mintel says spicy-in-sweets is going mainstream, and “desserts are going bananas.” At NACS, sweet-salty and sweet-tangy pairings were still going strong, and Mars previewed an M&M's Peanut Butter Cinnamon Roll flavor for 2027.
Mintel, Winning Innovation Territories, 2026; Mintel, Flavors and Ingredients in Desserts, Aug 2026; Datassential via NACS Daily, Jan 30, 2026; NACS Daily, Oct 7, 2026; National Confectioners Association, Oct 9, 2026.
Balanced Nourishment
Better-for-you that still feels like a treat. Shoppers still care about nutrition, but “low in sugar” is slipping as a definition of healthy (29%, down from 34%), and “fresh” is back on top.
Mintel, Winning Innovation Territories, 2026; IFIC 2026 Food & Health Survey, July 2026.
Made for Snacking
Bakery for every in-between moment. 64% of U.S. adults snack daily and morning snacking is growing as a breakfast alternative. Packaged sweet snacks peak at 7 a.m., coffee away from home is at its highest since 2020, and operators are adding fresh bakery breakfast items (+7 points since 2023). The advice at NACS: merchandise the occasion, not the aisle.
Mintel, Winning Innovation Territories, 2026; Mintel, Snacking, Jan 2026; PDI via NACS Magazine, July 2026; NCA, Sept 2026; Datassential, 2026 C-Store Trends; NACS Daily, Oct 7, 2026.
Key takeaways
What to bring to your next conversation
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Foodservice, without the risk
NACS called foodservice one of the industry's greatest opportunities, but NACS Research told smaller operators to think twice before launching new made-to-order programs. Thaw-and-sell bakery adds a fresh offer with no new kitchen, labor, or equipment.
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Retailers and shoppers agree on PCB
Bulk Pretzel and Cinnamon Crumble earned four 2026 honors from both retailer and consumer judges.
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PCB momentum
Monster Muffins shipped 178% more cases than a year ago and Coffee House Pound Cakes 24% more, while our 48ct cookies and Maple Long Johns posted some of the quarter's biggest gains.
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Food is carrying the channel
In-store sales grew 1.7% in 2025 and foodservice drives 38.9% of in-store gross profit. The chains growing visits are the ones with strong food programs, and bakery prices are rising at about half the pace of eating out (+1.9% vs. +3.5%), keeping a PCB treat an affordable indulgence.
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The breakfast bakery case is the opportunity
Foodservice bakery dollars grew 6.5% vs. 1% at retail, and operators are adding fresh bakery breakfast items. PCB's bulk donuts, bulk muffins and award-winning Bulk Pretzel fit right in, with no baking required.
Data sources
NACS Show 2026, Las Vegas (Oct 7–9, 2026): “Food & Beverage Trends Shaping Convenience in 2027” (Suzy Badaracco, Culinary Tides); NACS Research industry performance presentation (Chris Rapanick); Cool New Products Preview Room Top 10 Most Scanned · NACS Daily show coverage (Oct 7, 8 and 9, 2026) · C-Store Dive show coverage (Oct 7, 8 and 12, 2026) · National Confectioners Association, “Mars Previews 2027 Candy, Snack Innovations at NACS Show” (Oct 9, 2026) · PCB shipment data, cases shipped (Jul 2025–Sep 2026) · NACS State of the Industry data, press release (April 15, 2026) · NACS Magazine, “Small but Steady” (July 2026), citing NIQ and PDI Insights Cloud · Casey's General Stores Q1 FY2027 results (Sept 2026) · Alimentation Couche-Tard Q1 FY2027 results (Sept 2026) · Murphy USA Q2 2026 results (Aug 2026) · ARKO Q2 2026 results (Aug 2026) · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI (September 2026) · USDA ERS Food Price Outlook (September 2026) · Placer.ai (Oct 1, 2026) · National Coffee Association, National Coffee Data Trends Fall Report (Sept 2026) · Mondelēz International, State of Snacking (2026) · IFIC Food & Health Survey (2026) · Acosta Group, C-Store Occasions (Sept 2026) · Circana via Baking Business (Sept 28, 2026) · Datassential, 2026 C-Store Trends (Feb 2026) · Datassential via NACS Daily (Jan 2026) · NACS Daily, 2025 Top 10 Cool New Products (June 2026) · Convenience Store News Top 100 (May 2026), Nielsen TDLinx (Feb 2026) · Mintel: Convenience Store Foodservice – US (Feb 2026); US Bakery: Winning Innovation Territories (2026); Flavors and Ingredients in Desserts and Confectionery – US (Aug 2026); The Consumer Approach to Snacking – US (Jan 2026); Cookies – US (June 2026) · CStore Decisions Hot New Products Contest (2026) · Convenience Store News Best New Products Awards (2026)
Prairie City Bakery · Bakery Bites · Fall 2026 NACS Edition
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